Prof. Shamim Ahmad, AMU Aligarh
Modi’s defeat is certain… But…
Let’s calculate how Modi is going to be defeated badly.
Tamilnadu+Kerala+Andhra+Telengana+Karnataka+Odissa+West Bengal = 193 seats. Even during Modi wave in 2014, he could win just 21 seats (17 from Karnataka) out of these 193 seats. Now Cong and JDS have allied in Karnataka with total vote share of 56%. There is no Modi wave and there are no allies in these states except ADMK. ADMK has split into two and may not win a single seat. As a result, Modi can’t win more than 5 to 10 seats out of these 193.
Uttarpradesh – 80 seats. Modi won 71 seats in 2014 because all other parties contested separately. This time SP,BSP and RLD have allied with a combined vote share of 44%. Even during Modi wave in 2014, Modi got only 42%. He may get 20 to 25 seats this time. If congress too allies, he will get only zero seats.
Rajasthan+MP+Chattisgarh=60 seats. Congress has won all these three states just 2 months ago. He will not get more than 30 seats even if he stands upside down.
Out of 333 seats from the above 11 states, Modi won’t cross even 65 seats. Balance left is only 207 seats. One needs 271 to form government. Is it possible for Modi to win 206 out of 207 seats? Is it not a joke?
If you analyze the balance states, Modi may get 135 seats (best case scenario) and 70 seats (worst case scenario). Media pundits should explain from which states and how many seats Modi is going to win to form the next government.
How about EVM?
25 state elections were held since LS 2014. Modi has lost 15 of them including BJP ruled states like Delhi, Punjab, Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. He scraped through in his home state of Gujarat with 7 seat majority. He lost Goa and Manipur but captured power through governors. He was defeated in all 9 state elections held in 2018 except Tripura. No idea if these defeats are despite manipulation or manipulation not possible on large scale.
Possibility of Modi becoming PM again though defeated….
If BJP becomes the SINGLE LARGEST PARTY, despite the opposition having the majority, president Govind will call Modi to form government on the basis of BJP being single largest party. Opposition may go to SC which will endorse president’s view. He will have enough time to buy opposition MPs for his government to become stable. This is what happened in Goa and Manipur. To stop Modi/BJP from forming next government, BJP should be reduced to below 80 seats. It is possible if there is an under current of anti-Modi wave.